Debra BorchardtOnce blooming cannabis markets have been trimmed in recent years – but the reason isn’t all that insidious. OG markets like Colorado and Washington state have simply reached a new stage of development.
They’re maturing. And that’s led to fewer jobs for those looking to get a foot in the door.
But even as those markets wane, new opportunities are arising as even more markets come online.
Job losses
In its April 2024 Jobs Report, Vangst wrote that California, Oregon and Washington all experienced job losses in the past year. Even Colorado, which was once ground zero for the adult-use cannabis industry, saw cannabis jobs tumble by 16% over the past year, the largest loss tally for the time period.
The firm noted that several factors contributed to the drops, including falling cannabis prices squeezing retailer profit margins and the decline of cannatourism as more states legalize marijuana.
Between 2023 and 2024, cannabis jobs in the oldest markets fell across the board, including:
- 15% in Washington state
- 10% in Oklahoma
- 7% in Oregon
- 6% in California
The largest number of jobs were lost in California, at 5,000 year-over-year. That sounds pretty awful, but at least it’s lower than the previous year’s losses of 12,500 jobs.
Job gains
As the mature markets toss jobs into the ashtray, new markets are stepping up to keep the opportunities rolling.
The newest adult-use market to launch, Ohio, could be the next hot spot for cannabis jobs. Roughly 100 stores opened their doors on the first day. And with more licensing on the horizon, Vangst believes that there could be up to 200 more stores over the next two to three years.
“If Ohio can move licenses out the door with moderate efficiency, we expect a ramp-up similar to Missouri’s. That state went from $200 million to $1.3 billion in annual sales within the space of two years,” the cannabis staffing firm wrote.
New York also shows promise on the job front, despite its messy program launch beset with lawsuits. It also faces an entrenched illicit market that has proved to be a strong competitor for legal outlets. In addition, many licensees are still struggling to get enough money to open their doors.
All that said, the Empire State could still blossom into a cannabis jobs leader, Vangst said.
New Jersey is another bright spot, as the state has been booming with new licenses.
“The state Cannabis Regulatory Commission (CRC) continues to issue new licenses, and CRC leaders have predicted 30% revenue growth in 2024. That would put New Jersey’s market over $1 billion in annual sales,” Vangst wrote. “With a population of 9 million, the state’s annual revenue should eventually grow to top $2 billion or more. We expect thousands of new jobs to open up in NJ in 2024.”
Small but mighty Maryland is another market to watch. The state rang up $800 million in adult-use sales in the first full year with 75 licensed retailers, and it awarded 75 more retail licenses in March. Vangst said that if the Maryland program can overcome its legal challenges and address financing issues for new social equity licensees, the market should create thousands of new jobs in the coming year.
While these are just forecasts, Vangst has a solid track record in this arena. The company’s 2023 forecast for legal revenue was $29.2 billion; the actual number hit $28.8 billion (98.3% accuracy).
“This year we’re looking for 9.1% growth, with sales increasing to $31.4 billion. By 2030, we predict this will grow to $67.2 billion as more states legalize and more consumers participate,” the firm wrote.
“That growth will create more jobs, more wages, more taxes, and more ancillary support. Despite the challenges, this seems like a good problem to have as an industry.”
